The Forex Person of the year 2015 is economist and financial strategist Martin Armstrong.
Martin Armstrong, once a financial strategist and advisor to over one trillion dollars of asset, developed a computer model based on the number Pi and other cyclical theories to predict economic turning points with eerie accuracy. He is the person behind the “Princeton Economics International” think tank. He is known to have predicted the crash of 1987 to the very day.
The Economic Confidence Model is an economic cycle theory by Martin A. Armstrong. Armstrong proposes that economic waves occur every 8.6 years, or 3141 days, which approximately Pi X 1000. At the end of each cycle is a crisis after which the economic climate improves until the next 8.6 year crisis point. Armstrong’s theory was first applied in 1977, when he used it to successfully predict an upturn in the price of commodities.
He has been actively sharing his ideas and the results of his model for many years now. So why was 2015 “his” year according to FXStreet?
We might say that THE event of the year in the currency market was when, on January 15th, the Swiss National Bank suddenly and whitout previous notice depegged the Franc from the Euro. An event that had dramatic consequences for many traders and brokers. “No previous notice”? At least one person advised that this could happen. And not in private circles. In his public blog.
Just as an example of the many mentions he made about the Swiss peg, in a post from May 2014 where he was talking about the British pound sterling collapse when the pound was withdrawn from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, Armstrong wrote: “We will see the same crisis hit the Swiss franc peg to the euro. Devaluations take place BECAUSE currencies must be fluid. ”
Gonçalo Moreira, FXStreet’s Research Analyst, has been following Martin Armstrong’s blog for years: “Armstrong warned much in advance that the Swiss Franc-Euro peg would inevitably break. As a proof, I can demonstrate I had myself a position more than 1000 pips below 1.02, the price that was being quoted that morning of January 15th. Some people on Twitter (where I share my trades) even asked me why on earth I was holding such a position. If I hadn’t had that information from Armstrong, why would I have a position that far from the quote? Those who were following Armstrong and applying his recommendations certainly did not lose money that day. They probably made money.”
Our title of the Forex Person of the year is given to a person or a product that promotes transparency and helps the retail traders. Martin has been doing this for many years, sharing the predictions of his model and his analysis of the world economies, stock and currency markets and history of money. But little by little, he is becoming more famous and his knowledge is every day being more widely spread. And it’s been particularly the case this year.
In 2015, a movie about his life and experiences with the New York banking cartel was released, called “The Forecaster“, directed by Marcus Vetter and Karin Steinberger. This documentary has been selected and presented in 17 festivals around the world and reviewed in many news media.
Another anecdotal but meaningful proof that Armstrong’s theory (related to Pi) is being more broadly recognized and accepted is that it has recently been mentioned in the magazine of the prestigious and academical institution of the “Market Technicians Association”.
During his tour to present “The Forecaster” documentary, Armstrong went to Barcelona, where FXStreet offices are located. We took the opportunity to interview him during almost an hour.
We listened him talking about gold standards, interest rates, what money really is, the Euro and European debt, Grexit, taxation, the Swiss peg, oil, stock markets, elimination of cash, and many more fundamental topics of today’s world economy. An insightful and very inspiring talk that has been seen by more than 12.000 people, another number that shows that Armstrong’s views and theory arouses people’s curiosity.
The Economic Confidence Model pointed that a new major cycle would start in October 2015, shifting investors’ confidence from the public sector and governments to the private sector. So this time, that will not be a crash in private assets as in 1998 and 2007. This time it will be a crisis related to government debts. The years to come should tell us if this trend unfolds and ends as the model forecasted.
FXStreet’s Forex Person of the Year is a title that pays tribute to a person or a team of people behind a product or service that positively contributed to make the Forex world better, more respected and more transparent during the previous year. The focus is innovation, transparency and quality. It exists since 2011.