Non-Farm Payrolls 10th anniversary: “Everyone on the planet is impacted by NFP and thus the market will move” – Wayne McDonell

FXStreet will celebrate in a few days the 10th anniversary of its “Trade NFP Live” webinar in collaboration with Wayne McDonell. Wayne didn’t miss a single data release in all these years, he’s been there every first Friday of the month, without interruption, for a 3-hour webinar. He was there well before the financial crisis exploded, he covered the dramatic destruction of 699 k jobs in April 2009 and the recovery one year later. He was there when the flu or technical difficulties made things challenging. And he will be there to celebrate the 120th edition, on May 6th, 2016.

We took this anniversary opportunity to ask him a few questions!

Wayne desk 2008-2012-2016_yearsHow did the idea of a NFP coverage webinar start 10 years ago?

It started as a collaboration between FXStreet and FXBOOTCAMP. We both wanted a powerful educational event that was unlike any other. The US Jobs Report was the most volatile of all market events, but it was also marketed by unscrupulous organizations at a way to “get rich quick”. So we thought a live webinar webinar during NFP was the best way to teach forex traders how to be patient, disciplined and conservative.

Do you remember the market’s reaction to the NFP data that day?

I recall that first NFP moving 300 pips in one direction and then 200 pips in the other… the whole time staying calm and focused… not chasing price and teaching how to “not trade” when conditions were dangerous. It was a great event and 10 years later, it’s still a very popular live forex webinar.

What has changed in the way you trade since May 2006?

My strategy has not changed since 2006. I have, however, become much more focused on fundamental analysis. When I studied for the Series 3 test (the National Commodities Futures Examination), I learned a lot about the futures and options markets, but also how large institutional investors hedge. I found it fascinating. I continued my focus on fundamentals and learned much more about macro-economic data and central banking policy.

Continued education is still important to me, even after a dozen or so years of forex trading. In fact, I’m currently a Grad student at Harvard University. This semester’s class is studying the last 100 years of the energy/oil markets. Absolutely fascinating!

What makes your NFP live coverage unique compared to other coverages?

Three things make my “Trade NFP Live” webinar unique. First of all, the markets are more volatile than any other news event. This is because the report outlines the health of the US economy and central banks around the world hold more US dollars than they would care to admit. This means everyone on the planet is impacted by NFP and thus the market will move.

Secondly, the live webinar is 3-hour long. This allows us to cover the news release, the stock market open and the news at 10am, if there is any. So it’s really three events in one. However, the long event allows to cover topics rarely covered by any other expert in great detail. Trading techniques, trader psychology, portfolio management, risk management and how to become a professional trader. I have a lot of fun and I think attendees do to.

Lastly, I never go into the webinar with a pre-written agenda or power point slides. The event is live and in the real markets. I cannot hide in a “perfect world”. This makes the event the best possible learning environment for currency traders. And because it’s a dynamic and collaborative event, the audience is encouraged to ask questions and lead the focus of the webinar. Sometimes the questions are great for “newbies” and other times they are quite advanced topics. In either case, I am happy to share my experiences from trading non-farm payrolls over 120 times.

What’s been the evolution of the NFP data impact on the economy and currencies in the last 10 years?

NFP results are supposed to be a key factor in leading the central bank’s policy. The last few years since the global financial crisis it’s been the opposite; the central bank has been the key factor in NFP results. Now that we have neared full employment in the US, this relationship will decouple. A few years ago the USD was strong because it was a safe haven. Now it appears to be relatively strong because the alternatives such as GBP, EUR, AUD or CAD seem to be so weak.

Will this trend continue?

I imagine this trend will continue until things change at other central banks and the fundamentals change. I’d guess BOE and RBA will be first (12-month outlook). When the ECB is ready to raise interest rates (5 year outlook) perhaps we’ll be selling dollars. We’ll have to discuss that at Trade NFP Live #180!

Wayne will be with us on Friday May 6th for the 120th edition of FXStreet’s NFP webinar… and you should not miss it!

Leave a Reply